Why Frisco, TX Home Prices Are Dropping, and a Forecast for 2026

Home prices in Frisco, Texas have declined over the past year. But it's still the most expensive DFW city.

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The average home price in Frisco, Texas is more than double the average for the city of Dallas. This makes Frisco the most expensive housing market in the entire DFW metroplex, among major cities.

But like many markets across the country, Frisco has experienced a modest price decline over the past year, signaling a shift from the super-heated conditions of the recent past.

This report examines (1) the factors contributing to Frisco's higher home values, (2) the reasons behind the recent price erosion, and (3) the general forecast for the local real estate market through late 2025 and into 2026.

Here are the five most important points covered in this report:

1. Frisco homes cost about twice as much as the DFW metro average, with an average value of around $698,000.

2. Strong job growth, top-rated schools, planned communities, and rapid population gains have driven Frisco’s high home values.

3. Home prices have dipped modestly (about 1.3% over the past year) due to more listings, fewer bidding wars, higher mortgage rates, and longer selling times.

4. Current market conditions favor buyers more than during the pandemic, but sellers still hold some leverage.

5. Prices are likely to edge down further in 2025 before stabilizing and possibly rising slightly into 2026, depending on mortgage rates and economic trends.

Why Frisco, Texas Has Higher Home Prices

The city of Frisco has higher home prices than most cities in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area, including Dallas itself.

We can see this in the median home prices below, provided by Zillow:

• Arlington: $320,339

• Dallas: $318,689

• Fort Worth: $307,162

• Frisco: $698,323

• Garland: $302,469

• Irving: $351,076

• Plano: $532,725

• DFW metro area median: $379,611

These data show that most cities in the DFW area have a median home price in the low to mid $300,000 range, while Frisco is nearly double that.

Here are some factors that contribute to Frisco's elevated home values:

1. Strong Job Market and Corporate Presence

Frisco has established itself as a major hub for corporate headquarters and significant business operations, often dubbed "Sports City USA" and part of the "PGA Corridor." This has led to strong job growth while attracting a highly skilled workforce, increasing housing demand.

2. Highly-Rated School District

With a graduation rate near 99%, the Frisco Independent School District (ISD) consistently receives high ratings and is a major draw for families. This influences property values within its boundaries. Homes in top-rated school districts often command higher prices and maintain better resale value.

3. Quality of Life and Amenities

Frisco is known for its master-planned communities, extensive park systems, shopping, dining, and entertainment options. This high quality of life makes it a desirable location for many home buyers, putting upward pressure on prices.

4. High Demand and Population Influx

Frisco's population grew by a whopping 17% from 2020 to 2024, far exceeding the national growth rate of 2.6%—and more than doubling Texas's 7.3% growth. A strong influx of new residents relocating to the North Texas region have kept demand for housing in Frisco consistently high, boosting prices along the way.

The takeaway: While home prices in Frisco have declined over the past year, they remain high when compared to most other cities in the DFW metro area.

Why Prices Are Dropping in 2025

According to a May 2025 statement from Zillow: "The average Frisco, TX home value is $698,323, down 1.3% over the past year."

While modest, the recent 1.3% decline in Frisco home values reflects a broader market recalibration. This cooling trend is further evidenced by data from Redfin's Data Center, which indicates a shift towards a more buyer-friendly housing market.

Here are several recent and ongoing trends that highlight this shift:

1. Increased Housing Supply

Frisco currently has approximately a 4.5-month supply of homes. Inventory has grown over the past few years and is now back to pre-pandemic levels. Inventory growth usually puts downward pressure on prices, as sellers find themselves competing against more properties.

2. Shift in Buyer-Seller Dynamics

The market dynamics in Frisco have reversed from the pandemic era. Over the past couple of months, only about 12% of homes sold in Frisco went for more than the list price. In contrast, approximately 33% of listings experienced a price reduction. This indicates that sellers are adjusting expectations and buyers have more negotiating leverage.

3. Higher Interest Rates and Affordability

Elevated mortgage rates over the past couple of years have impacted housing affordability nationwide. While rates have seen some fluctuation, they remain higher than the historic lows seen during the pandemic, sidelining some potential buyers and cooling demand.

4. Longer Time on Market

Homes in Frisco (and the broader DFW area) currently take longer to sell when compared to the frenetic pace of 2021 and early 2022. This gives buyers more time for due diligence, price comparisons, etc.

Frisco Real Estate Forecast Into 2026

For the rest of 2025, the Frisco housing market will probably continue its transition toward greater balance.

While the market has shifted in favor of buyers over the past couple of years, it's not a classic buyer's market. Sellers still have plenty of negotiating leverage.

On the pricing side, I expect Frisco home prices to decline a bit further before leveling off and—eventually—turning north again.

While significant price jumps are unlikely, some analysts predict a stabilization of prices or modest single-digit growth over the next year.

Housing inventory is expected to remain at healthier levels compared to the shortage of a few years ago. Buyers today have more choices and negotiating power, a trend that could stretch into 2026 as well.

The market will remain sensitive to mortgage rate fluctuations. Any significant decrease in rates could stimulate buyer activity, while increases could further temper demand. Current forecasts suggest that mortgage rates might decrease slightly during the second half of 2025.

Frisco's strong economic fundamentals, excellent school system, and high quality of life will continue to attract new residents, supporting long-term housing demand.

Conclusion and Summary

Frisco's real estate market remains a premium segment within the DFW metroplex, largely due to its strong economy, excellent schools, and desirable lifestyle.

Frisco has not been immune to the broader DFW market cooldown and has experienced a shallow decline in prices over the past year. But this appears to be a market correction rather than a significant downturn.

Looking ahead, the Frisco market is expected to be more balanced through the remainder of 2025, with potential for modest price stabilization or growth.

The longer-term outlook into 2026 will depend on mortgage rate movement, economic stability, and consumer sentiment—all of which remain uncertain at present.

Disclaimer: The forward-looking views in this report (predictions) are the equivalent of an educated guess and should be treated as such.